Looks like the third named storm of the season will have an impact on the U.S. this weekend. The disturbance we’ve been following for the past 5 days is likely to become tropical storm Claudette over the weekend as it heads toward Louisiana.
It has been nice seeing some rainfall over parts of our area lately. That will continue again on Wednesday with a west to southwest wind and the trough of low pressure over N. Florida we will see scattered showers
A trough of low pressure system over the SE U.S. has brought onshore flow across west central Florida. This flow will once again bring a good chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to the our area through Wednesday.
We are now locked into a wet weather pattern that will last for at least several days. A combination of a trough of low pressure in North Florida and a moist and unstable flow of humid air coming in off the Gulf is keeping our rain chances at 60%-70% for our coastal areas this morning
The good news is our rain chances increase dramatically. Since we're more than 5" below average rainfall for the year, that is good news. The bad news, the rain will still be hit-and-miss scattered showers, so everyone doesn't get rain all at the same time
We're tracking a small Low Pressure in the upper atmosphere that will spend most of the coming week right over Florida. This Low will produce more thunderstorms and more widespread thunderstorms throughout the week
Storms will have a harder time developing most of the coming week as slightly drier air moves over Florida. That's in the upper atmosphere, not the surface, where dew points will hold in the low 70s for a humid feel and "feels like" temps close to 100
There is a small storm to move overhead Sunday night which will bring a few more isolated showers and storms to the Suncoast. Storms will have a harder time developing most of the coming week as slightly drier air moves over Florida
A few storms continue to pop up Sunday. But once again the pop up storms will mainly be inland, near I-75 and eastward, leaving the coastal areas mainly dry. But there is a small storm to move overhead Sunday night which will bring a few more isolated showers and storms to the Suncoast.
Rainy season is starting right on schedule. We have a weak front stalled across the Suncoast, a weak Low Pressure in the upper atmosphere over south Florida, and more moisture in the atmosphere for the next few days
Memorial Day Monday has the best chance of scattered showers, so a Plan B is a good idea for any outdoor activities in the afternoon when storms will be developing. And those rain chances stay higher for the first week of June
High pressure and dry air aloft will bring mostly sunny skies for the next few days. There will be better chances for showers this week, however, most of the storms will be well inland and drift toward the other coast