A cold front will sink south today and stall in south Florida. The front will help trigger showers and thunderstorms especially in the second half of the day. Some of the showers could be heavy rain producers leading to ponding on roadways. This will be the last day, even in the long-range forecast,
A very dry air mass sits over the state of Florida and a breezy east wind blows with gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. The dry air aloft will limit shower activity to only brief fast-moving light showers or drizzle without much accumulation.
Models are split on the path of the storm. The European model has shifted west and keeps a rapidly developing stronger storm off shore of the east coast. The American model has a less intense storm moving closer to Florida.
Dry and high pressure will limit the chance for showers this afternoon. With a generally east or northeast wind that will surge a bit in the afternoon and evening, we will see a few isolated showers build in inland locations in the early afternoon and then drift to the coast.
A Heat Advisory in effect for the afternoon between noon and 6 pm. The combination of the high humidity and the warm temperatures will bring the "feels like" temperatures up to about 108 degrees to 112 degrees.
Heavy rain will fall on that coast Wednesday and surf will be elevated. But on our coast, we’ll see breezy conditions, prompting Small Craft and Rip Current advisories. The breezy conditions will likely begin to subside by Friday as Dorian continues to move away.
Dorian’s forecast track continues to keep the storm off the coast of Florida with the forecast cone now keeping the uncertainty of two thirds error off land. The effects of the storm will still be felt on the Atlantic coast with gusty winds, rain and high water.
Its central pressure is dropping, its speed is increasing, the eye is forming and its rapidly developing. On Saturday, the storm will turn to the west and start heading for Florida, increasing to a Category 4 hurricane in strength.
It is still forecast to become a Category 2 then Category 3 major hurricane over the next 24 to 48 hours. Now that the center is out over open very warm water we can expect a rapid increase in intensity.
Dorian, now a Category 1 hurricane, is gaining in strength and new forecasting shows it possibly becoming a Category 3 storm before it hits the East Coast of the United States - but where it will hit remains uncertain.
High pressure keeps control of our weather over the next few days. It will bring us a west wind that will cause a few morning and early afternoon showers near the coast. By early afternoon the showers will cross the interstate and increase in coverage, leaving the coastal areas drier.
We have active weather to start the new work week on the Suncoast. A trough of low pressure is sagging into north Florida and helping hold a high pressure ridge to our south. With the high to our south, our winds have shifted to the southwest.
An area of high pressure is now to our north and so our winds will remain out of the southeast today. The winds across the state and our local sea breeze will meet in the afternoon and trigger numerous thunderstorms along the interstate corridor.
We are returning to a more typical summer Suncoast pattern today. As high pressure begins to shift to the north our winds will establish out of the east. A sea breeze will form in the afternoon and rain chances increase late in the day.