A Breezy Overnight Leads to a Gusty Week

Models Beginning to Agree on Disturbance Development in Caribbean Sea
WWSB ABC7 News - Weekends at 6:30pm
Published: Nov. 13, 2023 at 12:23 AM EST
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Overnight conditions will be breezy and cloudy with a morning low in the upper 60s. Monday will feel a little less humid than the weekend, as dewpoints dip to the upper 60s. Expect some cloud coverage on Monday, with sunshine also making an appearance. The big difference will be the wind speeds, making Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday a heads up for a potential First Alert Weather Day. Winds will arrive from the northeast between 10 and 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Tuesday will be more intense as a low pressure system travels east across the Gulf of Mexico, to Florida. Winds increase Tuesday and Wednesday with gusts up to 30mph. Rain chances stay slim Monday but creep up as the week progresses. By Wednesday and Thursday there is a very good chance of getting much needed rain and thunderstorms.

Heads up boaters! There is a small craft exercise statement in effect for overnight. This may turn into a Small Craft Advisory for the next few days. On Monday, expect clouds with sunshine and winds out of the northeast between ten and 15 knots. Gusts will reach up to 20 knots off shore. Seas will be between two and three feet with a moderate chop to choppy conditions. Tuesday and Wednesday seas will turn rough between three and five feet, with gusts up to 25 and possibly 30 knots as a low pressure system brings much needed rain to the Suncoast.

In the tropics, the disturbance in the Caribbean Sea has a 60% chance of development within seven days and little to no chance within two days. The European model is coming closer to aligning with the GFS American model, which shows the disturbance potentially developing into a tropical storm or hurricane before it passes over Haiti, toward the end of the week. If this disturbance develops, it is not expected to threaten the state of Florida. It will likely move northeast into the Atlantic Ocean. The next named storm would be called Vince.