First Alert Weather: Calm in the tropics as hurricane season winds down

WWSB ABC7 Good Morning Suncoast - Weekdays at 5am
Published: Nov. 8, 2023 at 2:47 AM EST|Updated: Nov. 8, 2023 at 6:56 AM EST
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - The Suncoast will be baking this week with well above-average temperatures.

However, the tropics will be cooling off. The only place in the tropics where there may be a chance for development is the southern Caribbean, and even there, major hurdles would have to be overcome by any developing tropical system.

Over most of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, the upper winds are becoming more hostile to hurricane development. Strong winds aloft would tear at developing thunderstorms and make the organization of the storms into tropical cyclones unlikely.

Water temperatures remain warm enough, but dry air also spreads across the tropics, which would tend to counteract the impacts of abnormally warm water.

Only in a small area of the Caribbean do conditions remain somewhat favorable for development. However, cloud cover or any existing disturbances remain lacking. The National Hurricane Center says new tropical cyclone activity is expected in the next seven days over the entire Atlantic basin, including the Caribbean. It would not be until late next week that a late-season storm might find conditions more favorable for development.

The GFS (American model) wants to spin up a tropical cyclone in that location, but other models are not as aggressive. The GFS tends to overinflate early and late-season Caribbean storms. We will watch this area closely over the next week for any signs of development. Should a storm develop, it would likely move into the Atlantic waters and miss Florida.

Locally, high pressure remains in control and the forecast is relatively stagnant. The main forecast aspect that will be of importance will be the warm temperatures and lack of rainfall.

By the weekend, the highs are in the upper 80s and we will be approaching the records within a few degrees.

Don’t expect any rainfall into next week. Surface moisture will be rising, however, especially by the weekend.