First Alert Weather: Calm week ahead with several windy days

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Our week starts with calm tranquil weather. Afternoon highs will be warmer than average for this time of year, in the upper 80s, with nighttime lows in the upper 60s.

It will be dry for the week, despite a cold front that will pass by on Tuesday. The air remains too dry to support much of a chance for rainfall.

The most noticeable weather event this week will come after the front has passed through Tuesday into Wednesday night. A refreshing wind out of the north will develop on Wednesday and much lower humidity will follow.

Daytime high temperatures will also drop about five degrees and the second half of the week will be in the upper 70s and low 80s, then mid-80s. Winds however will become gusty with the frontal passage and wind/water interaction will likely make for a period of hazardous water sporting.

Halloween looks fine, but a bit on the humid side. The evening will have temperatures ranging from the upper 70s during the start of the evening to mid-70s around midnight. The winds will be breezy but pickup on Wednesday morning. No rain Tuesday night with an almost full moon.

We start the last month of the official hurricane season this week. I will note that the GFS, aka “The American model,” has been persistent and mostly consistent with developing two tropical systems in the short term.

The first will be this week, east of the Bahamas. It will have little impact on Florida other than help to, along with the approaching cold front, keep our winds elevated. The National Hurricane Center gives this scenario a 30% chance of occurring.

The second system that GFS predicts will develop later this week and westward from the eastern Caribbean to the western Caribbean by the weekend. The model then shows it being caught in a trough next week and lifting north into the Florida Straits and then up the Atlantic.

If this occurs, it would be a danger to Florida next week. On the GFS projected path, the entire coastline of Florida will need to be vigilant, as west coast and east coast impacts might be possible. Because the system is still down the road in time, the National Hurricane Center is giving only a 40% formation chance.

In short, the hurricane season has been extremely active for an El Nino year and there is still a month to go. Lets remain as prepared as we have been all season long, until upper level winds make tropical formations unlikely and water temperatures cool.

As another reminder, we “fall back” at 2 a.m. on Sunday as Daylight Saving Time ends.

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