Several warm humid days this week before tropical weather could impact the Suncoast

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Published: Nov. 7, 2022 at 6:26 AM EST
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - It will be a First Alert Weather Day on Thursday and possibly Friday, due to the high possibility of enhanced rainfall and a windy day due to a close proximity to Subtropical Storm Nicole.

The newly named Subtropical Storm Nicole, a tropical cyclone that may be organized enough to become a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane as it moves into the east coast of South Florida, will spread it’s winds and rain across a large portion of Florida. It is difficult at this time to pin down the exact weather we will get on Thursday at this point in time, but an increase in winds to 30-40 mph has about a 30% chance to occur and periods of heavy rain are possible as well.

The major computer weather models are in good agreement on the development of the system and a forecast track that takes it close to the Suncoast. We should expect Tropical Storm Watches for South Florida to go up by Tuesday or, more likely, later today.

Nevertheless, the development and movement of the system is complex and uncertain, and questions regarding local impacts of are still difficult to forecast as the center has just formed this morning.

If the storm stays closer to the east coast of Florida, a much different set of weather conditions would be seen on the Suncoast that if the system moved across the state and made a more direct hit on Southwest Florida. It’s too early to tell.

However, the official track follows the major models and places the center of the storm close to the Suncoast as a moderate tropical storm on Thursday. Boaters should take advantage of this calm weather to secure their boats as winds will pick up each day before arrival of the strongest winds on Thursday.

For the next few days, warm and humid weather will be with us. Rain chances will be small into mid-week with only isolated early evening showers. Winds will be breezy, and boaters should be aware of the latest marine forecasts before leaving port. As always, plan for the worst and expect the best. However, it should be noted that at this time we are not forecasting a storm that will do any major structural damage. Local rain fall flooding, a few power outages, and perhaps a severe storm or two might be a reasonable worst case forecast given what we know at this time.