Tropical system to bring rain next week

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Chances of Florida seeing another tropical cyclone impact the state is looking more likely as both the GFS (American model) and the EURO forecast models are showing a closed low developing over the NW Bahamas on Monday or Tuesday and then tracking west toward Florida. It is too early to tell if this will verify but the chances continue to rise of this scenario happening next week. It will definitely bring an increase in clouds and breezy conditions our way beginning on Wednesday. We will also see a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday of next week.

Water temperatures are still in the mid to upper 80s over the SW Atlantic and the wind shear is expected to be moderate at the time of what ever may be moving through at that time so conditions will be somewhat favorable for this to develop. It is still too early to tell what we will see any impacts from this system but it is looking more likely that we will get some heavy rain at times and breezy conditions beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Friday. It is expected to eventually get pulled out of here toward the NE by a trough of low pressure expected to move into the SE U.S. late Friday.

So over the weekend we can enjoy nice warm weather with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. We will see mostly sunny skies becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon with less than a 20% chance for a late day storm. Winds will be out of the NE at 10-15 mph. This should keep the harmful respiratory impacts of red tide moving out into the Gulf of Mexico away from beach goers. Humidity will start to pick up on Sunday and the heat index will be in the low to mid 90s by mid afternoon.

Monday look for more of the same with generally partly cloudy skies and a chance for a few isolated showers later in the day. Highs will be in the mid 80s with a feels like near 90 degrees during the mid afternoon. Winds will be out of the NE at 15-20 mph on Monday.

Tuesday expect to see partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 80s along with a 30% chance for some scattered showers later in the day.

By Wednesday we look to see breezy conditions with winds out of the NNE at 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. We will see variable cloudiness along with a 50% chance for showers and a few thunderstorms at times. The high will be in the low 80s.

Thursday we will see more of the same with mostly cloudy skies breezy conditions with a good chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Still too early to tell how much rain we will see here, but it does look likely at this time.

By Friday the system is expected to eventually get picked up by a trough of low pressure and carried away to the NE back into the Atlantic.

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