ABC7 First Alert Weather UPDATE on TD#9

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Tropical depression #9 is slowly getting better organized in the central Caribbean as it moves to the WNW at 15 mph. Winds are still below tropical storm force winds (39mph) but are expected to go above 40 mph later tonight or early Saturday morning. All of the Florida peninsula is in the cone at this time and there is still a lot of uncertainty with the day 4 and 5 forecast. The center of this tropical cyclone on Monday could be anywhere between SE Florida near Key Largo all the way out into the SE Gulf of Mexico some 300 plus miles.

It is going to move over some very warm water in the NW Caribbean which will cause the storm to strengthen into a hurricane by Monday afternoon just south of the western tip of Cuba. There is a good chance we will see this storm rapidly intensify which means an increase in sustained winds of 35 mph or more in just one day. Intensity forecasting is very difficult but it looks like this could become a major hurricane by early Wednesday morning if it were to stay out in the Gulf which the GFS is suggesting at the time of this writing.

Most of the State of FL is inside the cone of uncertainty and that is due to the differing solutions between the EURO and the GFS forecast models. The GFS keeps the storm 145 miles west of our area as it moves NNE, while the EURO has it about 60 miles SE of our area moving to the NE away from the Suncoast. So it’s still too early to say how much Ian will impact our area but we have some impacts no doubt.

I would say we would begin to see watches go our as early as Saturday night and warnings by Sunday night if the storm moves into the SE Gulf of Mexico. If the storm continues to move at the present rate and make the turn to the north we should begin to see inclement weather move in by Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday afternoon. That appears to be the case right now.

We will know much more by Sunday night if Ian is going to have a significant impact on our local area. Stay tuned.

The weekend weather is looking great with only a few scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm during the late afternoon and evening. The rain chance is at 20% on Saturday and 30% chance on Sunday. We will have generally sunny skies with partly cloudy skies building later in the day. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees each afternoon with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday will be a day of transition as we will see our rain chances going up to 50% for mainly late day storms. Expect to see partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 80s and it will be a bit breezy however.

Tuesday we will see clouds on the increase as the storm gets closer to S. Florida. We will see our rain chances go up to 70% later in the day.

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