Tropical storm Ian forms in the Caribbean

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - The ninth named storm of the season has formed in the central Caribbean and is expected to grow into a major hurricane early next week as it moves into the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Currently, tropical storm Ian has maximum sustained wind gusts of 40 mph and gusts to 50 mph.

The storm is moving toward the west-northwest at 12 mph toward Jamaica. The guidance is in good agreement that Ian should turn westward during the next 12-24 hours then eventually toward the NNW on Sunday and Monday.

The storm is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane in the Caribbean before turning north and moving across the western tip of Cuba. After Cuba, Ian is expected to get even stronger in the SE Gulf of Mexico and grow into a major hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph and gust up to 140 mph. There is still some differing of solutions in the two main global forecast models on Tuesday. The EURO shows a more northeasterly turn after Cuba heading into south Florida and then on to east coast of Florida, while the GFS model is suggesting that Ian stays on a northerly course and brushes by to the west of the Suncoast. The error in the track forecast is fairly large some 300 miles four days out, so impacts on the Suncoast are highly dependent on the eventual track.