Models trending east putting Florida more at risk

Still plenty of uncertainty in path
Both models are trending east at this time
Both models are trending east at this time(WWSB)
Published: Sep. 22, 2022 at 9:00 PM EDT
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ABC7 News at 6pm

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - The quip “Waiting on a hurricane is like being stalked by a turtle” seems about right for Invest 98L. We will keep waiting until possibly late Saturday to early Sunday before the models get a handle on the actual closed low pressure system. From there we will see a lot less uncertainty beginning Sunday.

One thing is for certain is that you should be going over your hurricane plan. What that means is knowing what evacuation level you live in. Also check your hurricane supply kit to make sure you can live on your own for at least 3 days but preferably 7 days. Remember you should have one gallon of drinking water per person per day after the event.

We are fairly sure this system will become a tropical storm near Jamaica by Saturday. From there it will begin to track to the WNW and then to the north. It will be moving into a favorable area for strengthening. It could become a hurricane by Monday near west Cuba. From there the two most reliable models differ quite a bit at this time. The U.S. or GFS moves the center into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moves it to the north toward the big bend area near Cedar Key by Friday. The Euro moves the center over Cuba and then toward the Keys in Florida and then to the SE coast of Florida. The Euro solution would be much better for us here if that played out. Right now it just a wait and see kind of thing through late Saturday.

Expected to move into an area of very warm water
Expected to move into an area of very warm water(WWSB)

Too early to tell what we would get here, but if it runs up along our coast we would see heavy rain and the possibility of hurricane force winds on Wednesday and Thursday. Again this is subject to change due to the uncertainty of the projected path of this potential tropical cyclone. We would have a storm surge here but too early to tell how much at this time.

The forecast for the Suncoast over the next several days looks nice. We will see mostly sunny skies throughout much of the day with only a very small chance for a few scattered showers and storms.