Hyperactive Atlantic kicking things up a notch

Tropical storm likely in the Gulf by this weekend
Keeping a close watch on the system entering the Caribbean
Keeping a close watch on the system entering the Caribbean(WWSB)
Published: Sep. 21, 2022 at 8:59 PM EDT
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ABC7 News at 6pm

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - The season started off very slow with no named storms developing in the Atlantic basin during the month of August something that rarely happens. And just like that as September rolls on we are tracking 5 tropical areas in the Atlantic and two of them are named storms.

The major cat. 4 hurricane Fiona continues to head north moving away from the Turks and Caicos and setting its sights on SE Canada after brushing by Bermuda over the next 2 days. It is expected to merge with another mid-latitude cyclone and could become one of the most destructive storms for the Maritimes of SE Canada ever. The waves generated by Fiona will be felt all the way to the east coast of Florida through Maine over the next few days causing life threatening rip currents.

Tropical cyclone Gaston continues to be a storm spinning over the north central Atlantic and should not be a problem for any land areas as it is not expected to move much over the next 5 days.

There are two tropical disturbances out in the eastern Atlantic which could become storms over the upcoming days but will not be a problem for us here in Florida.

It is an area of disturbed weather just entering the SE Caribbean which poses the biggest threat to the United States next week. This system if forecast to become a tropical depression or named storm by the weekend as it tracks to the WNW into the central Caribbean sea. With water temperatures warmer than average in the Caribbean we can expect to see this storm get stronger as it eventually moves further west-northwest on Sunday and Monday.

Models are in close agreement through Monday and then the split begins
Models are in close agreement through Monday and then the split begins(WWSB)

There is lots of agreement with the forecast models as to where this one is headed for the next 4 to 5 days but after that there is a big spread as to where it may end up by Tuesday of next week when it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. The latest EURO is trending more toward the SE Gulf and then into Florida, while the GFS is showing a more westward track through the Yucatan and then off toward the northern Gulf coast States. Right now there is very little confidence with the long range forecast at this time. We will have a much better handle on the storm once the center forms and we get some new data from a recon mission now flying into the storm at the time of this writing.

It is too early to tell if we will see an impact from the storm at this time, but it is a good reminder to go over your hurricane plan and check to see if you have the necessary items in your hurricane survival kit. If this storm were to have an impact on our area it would be as early as Wednesday of next week or as late as Thursday or Friday.


GFS is suggesting more west while EURO has it going toward western tip of Cuba next week
GFS is suggesting more west while EURO has it going toward western tip of Cuba next week(WWSB)

othing to fret about now but keep up to date on the news and weather at ABC7 and on our First Alert Weather mobile app. for more information on this potential storm.

In the meantime expect to see nice and dry weather here through Friday with little or no chance for rain. We will see mostly sunny skies with only a 20% chance or less on Thursday and Friday. It will feel a little cooler in the mornings with the drier air and longer nights. Lows will be in the low 70s and highs will be in the upper 80s.

The weekend is looking good with only a 30% chance for a few late day storms in the mix otherwise mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s.