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Tropical Disturbance Could Turn Into Next Named Storm

Could be Bonnie by next week
Could become named storm next week
Could become named storm next week(WWSB)
Published: Jun. 23, 2022 at 10:04 PM EDT
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - A strong tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago is showing signs of developing in the E. Atlantic. Conditions will become somewhat favorable early next week to develop into a tropical depression or even storm as it heads toward the Caribbean. Both the EURO and the U.S. forecast model (GFS) are strengthening this system into a tropical storm or even a hurricane by late next week as it moves into the Central Caribbean sea.

Keeping an eye on the Caribbean next week
Keeping an eye on the Caribbean next week(WWSB)

We normally see about 60 tropical waves move off the west coast of Africa each hurricane season and only about 10% of them develop into a tropical cyclone as they usually move westward. Conditions are not all that favorable for development right now but could become a little more conducive for developing into something next week as it approaches the Windward Islands in the Caribbean.

National Hurricane Center now gives the system a 40% chance for developing next 5 days
National Hurricane Center now gives the system a 40% chance for developing next 5 days(WWSB)

Normally we don’t expect much in the main development region this time of year but it may happen this year due to warmer than normal Atlantic water temperatures and a weak La Nina, which favors tropical cyclones.

We have nothing to be too concerned with right now but will have a much better handle on whatever develops by Wednesday of next week.

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