Keeping an eye on the tropics

Chance for some heavy rain beginning late Friday
Tropical cyclone likely in next 2 days
Tropical cyclone likely in next 2 days(WWSB)
Published: Jun. 1, 2022 at 8:59 PM EDT
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ABC7 News at 6pm

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - For the official start of the 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season we already have 2 disturbances we are monitoring. Disturbance 1 now is likely to develop into the first tropical depression of the season as it moves into the SE Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Forecast models continue to show a weak tropical low moving toward south Florida late Friday and bringing some heavy rain for parts of mainly South Florida.

Rainfall totals could exceed 2 inches
Rainfall totals could exceed 2 inches(WWSB)

There is still a chance this system could be close to Sarasota or Manatee Counties late Friday but the EURO and GFS have been trending south with the center will moving in or near Ft. Myers instead. The heaviest rain typically gathers near the center but we can see some wrap around showers and storms which could be heavy here late Friday through Saturday morning.

The good thing is that the system will be moving fairly quickly to the NE and should clear out of our area by late Saturday. There is a lot of strong upper level winds as well which will keep the system from developing into anything too significant at this time as it crosses the peninsula of Florida. Once it emerges out over the Atlantic there is a good chance it could strengthen into a tropical storm or even hurricane.

The other system is system has a small chance, 10% of developing and will move out over the open waters of the Atlantic. This is however a good reminder that tropical systems can pop up quickly during the season and you need to have a survival plan ready to activate at any time.

Thursday’s weather will be nice once again with mostly sunny skies throughout most of the day followed by a few scattered late day storms. The rain chance is at 30% for afternoon and evening storms scattered about. The high will reach near 90 degrees away from the beaches.

Friday we will see an increase in cloudiness with a 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the day. Highs will reach into the upper 80s.

Rain continues on again and off again on Saturday morning through early afternoon. The rain chance is at 70%. Some of the rain could be heavy at times.

Sunday skies clear out and highs will warm into the upper 80s with a 30% chance for late day storms.

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