Warm and dry weather could be a trend this Winter

La Nina all over again for second year in a row
Warm and dry today
Warm and dry today(WWSB)
Published: Oct. 21, 2021 at 8:36 PM EDT
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - We could be in for a rather dry and warm end of Fall through January that according to the National Climatic Prediction Center who has come out with their 90 day prediction on Thursday. The long range forecast is calling for a good chance that we will see below average rainfall for the next 3 months. The average for November through January is just over 7 inches. They are also calling for a good chance for above average temperatures through much of the winter months.

Warm and dry winter possible
Warm and dry winter possible(NOAA)

La Nina (the cooling of the eastern Pacific) has made a strong comeback lately and that has huge impact on our weather during the winter months. La Nina is the opposite of El Nino which is the warming of the waters off the coast of Peru in S. America. When El Nino is present SW Florida sees an elevated chance for severe weather here along the Suncoast during the winter and early spring and we get a lot more rain. Since we have a large area of cooler than average water gathering near Peru and around the equator in the Pacific we can expect drier than average weather for the next 90 days.

Below average rainfall expected
Below average rainfall expected(WWSB)

We see fewer cold fronts move through our area during La Nina which means it should be warmer than normal as well. If this forecast pans out this will be the second year in a row that we will have a rather mild winter here. Last year during another La Nina event we never had a freeze during the winter of 2019-2020 season along the Suncoast.

For the near future expect to see another nice day on Friday with mostly sunny skies with a high around 89 degrees with only a very small chance for a sprinkle or two. Winds will be out of the east to southeast at 5-10 mph winds with a sea breeze developing during the mid afternoon.

Saturday we will see another nice day albeit warm with a high temperature around 90 degrees under partly cloudy skies. There is only a 20% chance for a shower or two during the afternoon.

On Sunday we will see increasing clouds as some moisture returns from the south and a cold front lies to our north. These two features will bring a chance for mainly some late day showers and a possible isolated thunderstorm. We should see generally partly cloudy skies with a 40% chance for rain and winds out of the ESE at 10-15 mph.

Monday expect to see some clouds occasionally along with a chance for some showers once again the rain chance is at 50%. The high on Monday in the mid 80′s due to an increase in cloud cover.

A weak cold front will slide through on Tuesday clearing things out a bit and cooling things down just a little with highs both on Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid 80′s which is typical for this time of year.

For boaters look for winds out of the east at 5-10 knots and then switching around to the NW later in the day as the sea breeze kicks in. Seas will be 2 feet or less with a light chop on the waters.

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