Summer drags on as more afternoon storms expected

Nicholas expected to make landfall into S. Central Texas
Published: Sep. 13, 2021 at 8:55 PM EDT
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Usually our first cold front typically moves through the Suncoast by the second week of October. So we have a few weeks to go before we get a little taste of fall here.

It is also a time we have to watch the tropics very closely for Florida. October is the month that Florida becomes the main target for tropical systems as the high pressure ridge that sits over the southeastern U.S. usually forces storms toward Texas and Louisiana during the heart of the season but gets beat up and forced out of our area in October, which allows storms to turn more toward Florida.

That is not to say we are not vulnerable during any month of the season but statistically speaking, Florida ranks first of all the coastal states of getting slammed by a tropical cyclone during the month of October.

Up to 16" of rain in some areas possible
Up to 16" of rain in some areas possible(National Hurricane Center)

Right now it is Texas getting hit by Nicholas. This one is going to be a big rain maker with the potential of 16 inches of rain in some areas of southeast Texas and western Louisiana over the next 48 hours.

Nicholas is the 14th named storm of the season and we are watching two other areas of concern which have a good chance of becoming named storms over the next several days.

One disturbance east of the Bahamas is expected to move northward and shouldn’t be a concern for Florida, the other is in the far eastern Atlantic and looks to be heading west over the next five days into the open waters of the south central Atlantic. We have plenty of time to monitor the latter as it is projected to move westward for at least the next seven days.

95L looks to become Odette
95L looks to become Odette(WWSB)

So far this season there have been 14 named storms -- nine tropical storms, five hurricanes, three of those major storms. That would be an above normal season and we still have more than two and a half months to go before the official end of the 2021 hurricane season for the Atlantic basin. The next name up is Odette.

Busy season so far and more on the way
Busy season so far and more on the way(wwsb)

The forecast for the rest of the work week is calling for mainly late day storms each day with mostly sunny skies to start the day followed by partly cloudy skies in the afternoon and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The rain chances for the next six days is anywhere from 40 to 50% for late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Typical summer weather!

For boaters look for winds out of the east at 5-10 knots from morning through early afternoon and then switching to the west as the sea breeze kicks in. Seas will be 2 feet or less with a light chop on the bays and inland waters.

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