Rain chances are going up

Meteorologist John Scalzi
Meteorologist John Scalzi
Published: Jul. 23, 2021 at 6:54 AM EDT
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - A combination of atmospheric features, more characteristic of June than the end of July, will come into play this weekend. First, today will see additional moisture filter in and support additional shower activity today.

The most likely time for a shower along the coast will be midday. Those storms will drift to the southeast and move well inland by the afternoon, leaving the coast relatively calm in the afternoon. Without the rains will come the heat and muggy northwest to west winds. That combination will drive our “feels-like” temperatures up to near 105 again today and heat advisories may be necessary.

A second factor to the rain chances will come with a trough of low pressure sinking south through north Florida. This will help destabilize the atmosphere and trigger Gulf storms to our northwest. These storms could sag into our area late in the evening or early into the overnight.

The third factor, which brings even more uncertainty into the forecast, is a cluster of unorganized storms in the waters of the near Atlantic off the coast of Jacksonville. Some models develop this into a tropical system and the National Hurricane Center gives that chance a 30% likelihood. In any event, it is likely that an increase in moisture will up the rain chances into the weekend.

After a very brief period of northeast winds on Sunday, our winds will shift southeast by Monday and slowly return us to a more typical summertime pattern of inland storms in the afternoon drifting back toward the coast later in the day.

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