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Coastal morning storms possible on Friday

Keeping a close watch on Elsa
Models differ quite a bit to what Elsa does
Models differ quite a bit to what Elsa does(wwsb)
Published: Jul. 1, 2021 at 8:57 PM EDT
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - A cold front and trough of low pressure will push into the SE U.S. on Friday this will push the high pressure ridge to the south of our area. This will keep a southwest to west wind throughout the day which tends to focus scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast during the morning hours and then the storms move mainly inland away from the beaches.

Rain chances lower for Friday
Rain chances lower for Friday(wwsb)

Friday we will see partly cloudy skies with a 30% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms with a high of 88 degrees. With the onshore flow we will see higher humidity which will make if feel like the mid to upper 90′s during the afternoon hours. Lows will be in the upper 70′s and it will be muggy.

Saturday the rain chances stay fairly low anywhere from 30% near the coast to 40% well inland later in the day. The timing of the storms will be the same as Friday with those early showers and isolated thunderstorms moving onshore in the morning and then pushing toward the east coast in the latter part of the day.

Sunday the pattern doesn’t change much with still that onshore flow hanging around however we will have to keep an eye on what Elsa is doing to our south. She could change things up a bit with possibly bringing in some drier air out ahead of her. We will keep the rain chance at 40% for mainly late morning storms and then generally inland during the afternoon and evening.

Monday things start to get interesting if Elsa is able to survive the mountains of Haiti and Cuba. Forecast models continue to show a big spread as to where Elsa will be on Monday and Tuesday. For right now expect increasing cloudiness with breezy conditions out of the ESE and a 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday would be the toughest part of the storm for us if it stays on course up the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Right now I’m calling for mostly cloudy skies and a 70% chance for showers and thunderstorm with some heavy rain possible. Of course everything could change considerably if Elsa moves more to the east out into the central Gulf of Mexico.

There is still much uncertainty with the future of Elsa after Saturday. Two of the more reliable models the EURO and the UKMET both show the storm weakening into a tropical wave while the GFS forecast solution is showing a much more robust storm moving along the west coast of Florida. This is going to be a tough one to predict but the way things look now and climatology speaking this storm should move further west off into the Gulf and then toward the northern Gulf coast states after Wednesday. Time will tell.

What residents here should be doing is monitoring the future forecasts with this storm over the weekend for any big changes in the cone of uncertainty. It is just too early to call on this one at this time. Go over your hurricane plan and check your supply kit to make sure you have all the necessary items to ride out the storm.

Once again be sure to stay tuned to ABC7 and the First Alert Weather team by checking in on tv, online at Mysuncoast.com and with our First Alert Weather app.

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