More heavy rain possible Thursday P.M.
Changes come Friday with a wind shift
SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Rainfall amounts over the past week have exceeded 8 inches in places and with the ground already saturated we can expect to see some flooding issues along some roadways at times with more strong storms rolling through Thursday afternoon.
Winds will be rather light from the southeast to start the day for Thursday. This will allow for the sea breeze to kick in earlier and push a little farther inland. As the two opposing winds collide we will see another round of strong storms break out and dump up to 2-3 inches of rain over some areas which have already seen some 8 inches plus since Saturday.
In just 7 days we have seen 6 inches of rainfall at the Sarasota/Bradenton airport almost making up for our nearly 7 inch deficit since Jan. 1st. We are now only about 1 inch below average for the year.
The timing of the storms will be a little later in the day as the east coast breeze will take a little longer to get over here and interact with the west coast breeze. We will see partly cloudy skies through the early afternoon with increasing cloudiness through mid afternoon as the storms gather. The high will be right around 90 and lows in the mid 70′s for Thursday.
Friday we see a trough of low pressure move in over the SE U.S. which will bring a timing change to the storms here along the west coast of Florida. We will see onshore flow or winds out of the west which will favor morning coastal showers and scattered storms and then those will progress eastward toward our inland Counties later in the day. The intensity of the storms will be less than what we’ve been seeing as well. The high on Friday will be in the upper 80′s but with the onshore flow it will feel more like the upper 90′s to low 100′s.
Saturday some slightly drier air moves in and our rain chances go down to 30% for those morning coastal storms again, with a 40% chance for late day storms well east of I-75. The weather should be good for all the fireworks display’s Saturday and for July 4th. The high on Saturday will be 88 degrees with a feels like in the upper 90′s due to the increase in humidity coming in from the Gulf.
Sunday or July 4th is calling for the SW wind flow to continue which means we could see scattered morning and early afternoon storms or showers again. These will have nothing to bump up against so they shouldn’t be all that strong as they make their way inland and then eventually toward the east coast of Florida during the late afternoon and evening.
For the work week we will have to closely monitor what is happening in the tropics. There is a lot of uncertainty with the forecast of what is surly going to be Elsa by day 4 and 5 or Sunday and Monday. Elsa is expected to track through the Caribbean moving from west to east over the next 3 days and then there is a lot that can happen. If the high pressure ridge driving the storm weakens the storm will track more toward Florida, if it builds in quicker and stronger as a low pressure moves out then it will move more toward the central Gulf of Mexico. In fact the spread as to where the center of this cyclone will be is over 700 miles by day 5 or Monday. So it is still too early as to what impact if any this system will have on Florida.
For boaters look for winds out of the ESE at 5-10 knots in the morning and early afternoon turning to the SW later in the afternoon. Seas will be 2 feet or less with a light chop on the waters. Winds and seas will be greater as storms move out into the Gulf later in the afternoon and evening.
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