Potential tropical cyclone #5 has formed

Soon to be Elsa
Forecast calls for a trip through the Caribbean
Forecast calls for a trip through the Caribbean(wwsb)
Published: Jun. 30, 2021 at 5:23 PM EDT
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - The next named storm this season is Elsa and it could be named as soon as this weekend in the central Caribbean. A well defined low pressure located 1200 miles east of the Caribbean is moving fast toward the WNW at 25 mph. We are on pace with the incredible extreme season of 2021 when we saw 30 named storms.

In 5 days from now most of the forecast models are showing the center of this tropical cyclone anywhere from near the Cayman Islands in the western Caribbean or just offshore of Miami by Monday afternoon. Two school of thoughts here, if the ridge to the north which is driving the storm to the west weakens of gets bumped out farther east into the Atlantic then it will more toward Florida. If the ridge builds back in strong over the SW Atlantic then it will head more toward the central Gulf of Mexico.

Cone getting close to Florida
Cone getting close to Florida(wwsb)

One thing to note here is that it is a long way away and a lot can happen over the next 7 days so we just have to watch it closely over the weekend to see how the steering currents play out over the upcoming week. It is much too early to say whether we will see any impacts from this storm but the GFS or the U.S. forecast model shows it coming very close to the Suncoast on Tuesday of next week.

Stay tuned to ABC7 and download the ABC7 First Alert Weather app to keep up to date with the latest on potential tropical cyclone number 5.

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