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Potential tropical system in Gulf next week?

U.S. model suggesting something developing
Published: May. 14, 2021 at 11:44 PM EDT
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SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Get ready for the hype! It’s getting to be that time of year once again for the Global Forecast system (GFS) model to erroneously spin something up in the long range forecast. This time it’s a weak low pressure developing in the Gulf late next week. None of the other models is suggesting anything developing so it’s very unlikely we will see a closed low in the Gulf next Friday.

This is an important reminder to be careful of these long range models especially the GFS and what you read on the social media sites. The Global Forecasting System (GFS U.S. Model) is notorious for overdoing tropical systems especially early on in the season. If the trend continues in the successive model forecasts through the weekend and the other models start to grab hold of this solution then the confidence of weak system in the Gulf developing will ramp up of bit but until that happens I’m not biting on it yet.

System unlikely to develop in Gulf
System unlikely to develop in Gulf(WWSB)

With the hurricane season less than 2 weeks away it is a good idea to start to get your plan and grab some supplies for your hurricane kit before the season begins.

Path of Ana back in 2015
Path of Ana back in 2015(NOAA)

Interesting to note back in 2015 on May 6th tropical storm Ana formed east of Florida so it can happen but right now it is unlikely.

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