SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - During The National Tropical Weather Conference, Dr. Philip Klotzbach with Colorado State University stated that they are expecting an above-average hurricane season.
During the conference, Dr. Klotzbach described how at the current state we are in a La Niña phase that has been fading. However, there is a very low chance to turn toward El Niño.
This periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific is crucial in forecasting potential risk in hurricane season. During a La Niña phase, wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Basin weakens which aids in the intensification of hurricanes.
With the current conditions and based on the climatological past, Colorado State University is forecasting 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. In comparison, the average is 12 named storms, 6 major hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. This puts their 2021 forecast at just above average.