Tropics heating up again

Watching 3 areas of concern

First Alert Weather - 6:00pm October 14, 2020

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Well that was fast! We now have 3 areas of concern that the First Alert Weather team is watching right now. All of them have a small chance of developing over the next 5 days, less than 30%. Disturbance 1 or 93L is located near the Lesser Antilles and only has a 10% chance as it moves to the WNW at 10 mph toward the Dominican Republic. Disturbance #2 could form SE of the Bermuda and track toward the W/SW over the next 3-5 days.

Now there are 3 areas of concern we are monitoring
Now there are 3 areas of concern we are monitoring (Source: National Hurricane Center)

More importantly another area (disturbance #3) could pop up in the SW Caribbean which is a favored area for development this time of year. The GFS forecast model continues to show a significant storm emerging from this area by mid week next week. Too early to say whether this system will form or even have an impact on us but it needs to be watched closely next week. Late season storms that develop in the western Caribbean can and usually do impact Florida more that any other state in the U.S.

Nothing to be too worried about yet, but just a reminder that we still have more than 45 days before this hyperactive hurricane season comes to an end. So far this year we have seen 25 named storms, 9 hurricane (5 of which made landfall into the U.S.) and 3 major storms with winds greater than 110 mph. I would expect to see at least 2 more named storms before it wraps up for 2020 hurricane season.

Our weather has been tranquil as of late, albeit warm, we haven’t had much in terms of rain lately. We will see our rain chances go up late Friday as a weak cold front moves in but I really don’t expect much with this front in terms of rainfall or chilly weather.

Nice beach day with seas less than 2 feet.
Nice beach day with seas less than 2 feet. (Source: WWSB)

Some morning fog may be around once again on Thursday morning from around 6 a.m. to 8 a.m. It could be thick in some patchy areas especially north of us in Hillsborough County. It will quickly burn off and we will see mostly sunny skies through the day with a high of 89 degrees.

Friday we will continue to be warm with a high in the mid 80′s near the beach and around 90 elsewhere. There is a 30% chance for a late afternoon or evening shower due to a very weak cold front expected to move through the area. Don’t expect a big drop in temperatures with the passage of this front.

On Saturday we will see skies clear out for the most part and a high of 86 which is typical for this time of year. The air will be a bit drier as well. It will be a bit breezy with winds out of the NE at 15-20 mph.

Saturday night looks nice with fair skies and lows around 70.

Sunday we will see partly cloudy skies and a 30% chance for scattered showers mainly in the afternoon. The high on Sunday 88 degrees.

For boaters expect winds out of the ENE at 10-5 kts. and seas less than 2 feet on Thursday with a light chop on the waters.

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