SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) -
Tropical Storm Gamma made it’s first landfall early Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of Tulum, Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Gradual weakening is likely into Sunday while the center either moves over land or interacts with nearby land. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin by Monday, but the numerical guidance is not very enthusiastic about intensification over the Gulf, probably due to the combination of drier air and the interaction with another low pressure system to the east. In a couple of days, a ridge is forecast to build back across the Gulf of Mexico. This is expected to cause the system to turn westward to southwestward over the latter part of the forecast period. The more reliable global models show the system meandering over the southern Bay of Campeche in 4 to 5 days.
A tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...Medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...High...70 percent.
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Significant development is not expected beyond that time due to the system moving into a region of strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...Low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...Low...20 percent.
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph, and some slow development is possible during the next couple of days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...Low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...Low...10 percent.
We are now officially in a La Niña, which has been a driving factor to this ongoing extremely active hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin. We will likely see more names off the Greek Alphabet list before the end of hurricane season.