Keeping an eye on the tropics

Tropical depression likely over weekend

First Alert Weather - 6:00pm September 30, 2020

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - The fall weather will continue on Thursday with a nice comfortable start with lows in the upper 60′s for most low 70′s near the beaches. Expect a bit more sunshine on Thursday as well as high pressure builds in from the north. This will allow the temperature to warm into the low to mid 80′s by the mid afternoon.

The humidity will stay in the pleasant range on Thursday as winds will be out of the NE at 10-15 mph.

Friday is looking good with lows in the upper 60′s to low 70′s for lows and highs will be in the mid 80′s. The humidity should stay rather low and should still feel nice but all bets are off for the weekend.

By Saturday winds switch around to the east and then southeast by Sunday. This will bring the temperatures up along with the humidity especially on Sunday.

The rain chances will increase on Sunday to 40% as some tropical moisture moves back in. Look for increasing cloudiness and a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Some forecast models are peeling some moisture away from the disturbance to our south and pushing it toward the Suncoast late Saturday and on Sunday.

Tropical depression likely this weekend
Tropical depression likely this weekend (Source: WWSB)

Speaking of the tropics we are now monitoring two areas for the possibility of development. Tropical disturbance number 1 is south of Jamaica and is moving to the WNW. This now has a really good chance (70%) of developing into a tropical depression on Saturday and into a possible named storm over the weekend. The next name up in the Greek alphabet is Gamma.

Right now forecast models are suggesting that this system will stay to our south as high pressure keeps it locked up near the Yucatan. It looks like some of the moisture and energy from this system may get peeled off and move our way late on Saturday and through Sunday. We will have to watch this system closely early next week. A lot can happen from now and Sunday so keep it tuned to ABC7 and the First Alert Weather team for further updates.

The one behind it, disturbance #2, is moving toward the eastern Caribbean. It only has a 20% of developing over the next 5 days. The long range forecast models do show this system developing into a tropical depression late next week as it moves through the NW Caribbean. Too early to tell on this one but this is the time of year we have to keep a close watch to our south in the Caribbean as these then to have an impact on Florida late in the season more so than the other Gulf coast States. Of the two this one is more concerning to Florida at this time.

For boaters expect partly cloudy skies and winds out of the NE at 15 knots with those winds subsiding to 5-10 knots by the afternoon. Seas will be 2-3 feet with a moderate chop on the bays and inland waters.

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