SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) -
Hurricane Teddy - The earlier eyewall replacement cycle occurring in Teddy since last night appears to have completed. There is now a more pronounced outer ring of convection noted in satellite and microwave imagery, and a large ragged eye is beginning to appear in the satellite images. Teddy has maximum sustained winds of 120 mph with wind gusts up to 150 mph. The storm is moving northwest at 13 mph with a pressure of 958 mb. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning Sunday evening. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Tropical Storm Beta - Beta is nearly stationary and has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with higher wind gusts. Satellite imagery indicates that Beta has a small area of convection over the low-level center, with a dry slot on the northeastern side separating that convection from a larger outer band. The guidance is in good agreement that a slow westward to west-northwestward motion should start tonight as a mid-level ridge develops north of the cyclone. Beta will be near or over the Texas coast in about 60 hours or by Monday afternoon. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban, and river flooding, especially in coastal areas where tide levels are above normal. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide from Sunday through Tuesday along portions of the Texas coast within the storm surge warning areas. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast by Sunday night within the tropical storm warning area, with hurricane-force winds possible along portions of the Texas coast late Monday and Monday night, where a hurricane watch is in effect.
Latest on Tropical Storm Wilfred - Tropical Storm Wilfred has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. Increasing westerly shear and a drying airmass along the forecast track should result in weakening within 36 to 48 hours, and global models show the cyclone dissipating by 60 hours.
Disturbance 1 - Shower activity has increased a little today in association with Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette, which is is moving southward a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to continue southward for the next day or so and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores. The cyclone could subsequently develop tropical or subtropical characteristics by early next week while it moves little.
Disturbance 2 - A tropical wave is located near the west coast of Africa and will move westward over the far eastern Atlantic during the next few days. Development of this system is no longer expected.