Sally becoming better organized in the Gulf and expected to strengthen into a hurricane tomorrow

Storm surge and flash flood biggest concerns for the northern Gulf coast

Sally becoming better organized in the Gulf and expected to strengthen into a hurricane tomorrow
Sally Satellite (Source: WWSB)


Not much has changed with the latest 5:00 pm advisory as Tropical Storm Sally still has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is moving west-northwest at 9 mph over the warm Gulf waters. Sally’s feeder bands will continue to produce gusty showers across the Suncoast through the next 24 hours. We remain on the eastern side of the storm, therefore an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. An additional 2-3 inches of rainfall is possible and up to 5 inches in isolated locations through Monday.

An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by Monday. Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across southwest and central Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across portions of the central Gulf Coast Monday through the middle of the week, with flooding impacts spreading farther into the Southeast in the middle to late parts of the week.

Tropical Storm Sally 5pm
Tropical Storm Sally 5pm (Source: WWSB)
Sally Satellite
Sally Satellite (Source: WWSB)

Hurricane Paulette has maximum sustained winds of 85 mph and is moving northwest at 14 mph. The storm is on track to strengthen into a category 2 hurricane before nearing the island of Bermuda tonight and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. The storm is then forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane over the west-central Atlantic.

Paulette 5pm
Paulette 5pm (Source: WWSB)

Tropical Depression 20 has sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving west-northwest at 12 mph. The storm is expected to go through a significant phase of strengthening as it heads west toward higher oceanic heat content and a more unstable atmosphere. The storm is likely to become Tropical Storm Teddy early Monday morning.

Disturbance 1 - A surface trough over the west-central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce limited shower activity. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves southwestward and then southward at 5 to 10 mph over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

Disturbance 2 - Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remains elongated. However, environmental conditions are conducive for a short-lived tropical depression to form over the next day or so while the low moves north-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Development is not expected by Tuesday when the system is forecast to encounter strong upper-level winds and move over colder waters.

Disturbance 3 - A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Some gradual development of the system is possible by the middle of the week as the wave moves westward at about 10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

TD 20 and disturbances
TD 20 and disturbances (Source: WWSB)
Disturbance 1
Disturbance 1 (Source: WWSB)

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