Latest on Paulette and Rene along with several other disturbances brewing in the Atlantic Basin

Tropical Wave will move over South Florida tonight and into the eastern Gulf tomorrow bringing widespread showers and isolated storms this weekend

Latest on Paulette and Rene along with several other disturbances brewing in the Atlantic Basin
Tropics Stay Active (Source: WWSB)


Tropical Storm Paulette - Maximum sustained winds are 65 mph with higher wind gusts and it is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday. While the exact details of Paulette’s track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Paulette 11:00 am 9-11
Paulette 11:00 am 9-11 (Source: WWSB)

Tropical Storm Rene - Rene lost essentially all of its deep convection over the past several hours, however recently some new thunderstorms have developed over the western part of the circulation. The cause of the system’s decline is not clear. One negative environmental factor could be dry air, which has kept the storm from strengthening much. However, Rene should remain over waters near 80 degrees or warmer and the shear is not expected to increase much during the next day or two, therefore some re-intensification is expected.

Renee 11:00 am 9-11
Renee 11:00 am 9-11 (Source: WWSB)
Disturbance 1-4
Disturbance 1-4 (Source: WWSB)

Disturbance 1 - Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern and central Bahamas and the adjacent waters continues to shows signs of organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure could be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida. This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The disturbance could become a tropical depression while it is near South Florida tonight, but it is more likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days, and interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf coast, should monitor its progress.

Disturbance 2 - Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week.

Disturbance 3 - A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

Disturbance 4 - Another large area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave is beginning to move off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by Monday or Tuesday.

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