SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - September 10th marks the peak of the hurricane season, meaning on this date we usually see the most tropical activity of the season.
With 2 tropical storms and 4 other tropical disturbances in the Atlantic the climatology is holding true this 2020 tropical season.
Paulette is forecast to move toward the NW and remain a tropical storm as it heads toward Bermuda in 4 or 5 days. Rene is expected to hang around in the far E. Atlantic and not have any impact on land for the next 5 days.
A mid level low east of the Bahamas is moving west and will move across S. Florida this weekend. This system now has a small chance of developing into a tropical low over the weekend in the E. Gulf of Mexico. The chance is small at 20% over the next 5 days. Regardless of whether it develops or not it will bring a good chance for some heavy rain over the weekend and into Monday for the Suncoast.
Conditions will become somewhat more favorable once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. It looks like it would continue to move west through the work week next week away from the Suncoast. Stay tuned on this one.
The weak disturbance SE of the Carolina’s looks like it will not have time to develop into much as it moves to the NW toward S. Carolina. It will bring mainly rainfall and some gusty winds late Thursday and into Friday across the Carolina’s.
The strong tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa should be our next named storm which is Sally. The forecast models continue to flip flop back and forth in keeping this storm moving west into the Lesser Antilles or bending it to the NW into the central Atlantic next week.
We have a long time to watch this system all next week. I would not be surprised to see this develop into a major storm next week. This time of year storms can pop up quickly even when the models are not showing anything in the forecasts. We have a long way to go before the end which is November 30th. so make sure you have a plan.
October is a month I tend to worry about more so than most months of the hurricane season as storms tend to develop more in the western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico late in the season. These storms usually have more of a chance of impacting Florida than say Texas or Louisiana during the latter half of the season as cold fronts and the jet stream tends to dive more into the western Gulf blocking storms from going west.
Either way don’t let your guard down have a plan and be ready if a storm heads our way.
Thursday expect partly cloudy skies in the morning with a 20% chance for a coastal storm followed by increasing clouds in afternoon with a 70% for late afternoon and early evening storms moving through.
Friday the rain chances stay elevated with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely mainly in the afternoon. The highs will be right around 90 each day and lows in the mid 70′s.
The weekend could be rather active with the area of low pressure moving across the state bringing some clouds along with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain could be heavy at times.
The weekend weather will be unsettled at times with plenty of moisture in the picture so keep the umbrellas handy.
Boaters expect winds out of the SE at 10 knots switching around to the SW at 5 kts. later in the day.