Morning storms again possible on Friday

Tropical disturbance 13 still disorganized

First Alert Weather - 6:00pm August 20, 2020

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - All eyes are on the tropics at this point as two tropical cyclones continue to move toward the WNW. TD #13 is having a hard time maintaining its organization as some dry air continues to shunt its development at this time.

It will have some time to organize on late Friday and into the weekend if it can avoid the mountains of Hispaniola. Right in the SW Atlantic near the Central Bahamas conditions will turn favorable for some strengthening for a short period of time.

This is the reason why the National Hurricane Center thinks it will become a cat. 1 hurricane by Saturday afternoon somewhere SE of Florida. There is still a lot of uncertainty as to where it is going after day 3 but the most favored area is toward S. Florida on Sunday and then moving NW around the western periphery of a high pressure system to the NE of it.

Most of Florida in the cone of uncertainty
Most of Florida in the cone of uncertainty (Source: WWSB)

This would take is close if not through the Suncoast. If it were to move over land from Miami say for example, it would lose a lot of its punch by the time it were to reach us.

The other scenario is that is moves through the Florida Straits and then northward through the E. Gulf of Mexico. This would be the worse case for the Suncoast. We would see a good chance of mainly high end tropical storm force winds and heavy rain. It looks like it would be moving at 10-15 mph which typically translates into to 6-8 inches of rain with some isolated areas getting near 10 inches.

We would be on the right side or dirty side of the storm which would bring some heavy downpours at times. With a cat. 1 storm you can expect some small trees down, large branches snapped off, some minor roof damage and pool cages and sheds damaged.

The chances of getting tropical storm force winds at the tiime of this writing is at 30-40% near the coast. The timing of the strong winds looks to begin late Monday night and continue through Tuesday morning. This is all subject to change depending up how it does once it gets through the mountains of Hispaniola.

TD #14 is looking better organized at this time and is forecast to move through the Yucatan and then off toward the SE Texas and SW LA. We could have two named storms in the Gulf at the same time.

A lot can happen from now to Sunday so stay tuned to ABC7, Mysuncoast.com and on your First Alert Weather app.

As far as Friday’s weather goes we can expect more onshore flow of SW winds rotating around a trough of low pressure in the Gulf. This will funnel deep tropical moisture into our area. The rain chance is at 40% for the coast and then bumps up to 60% for storms in the afternoon. The high will be near 90.

Saturday partly cloudy skies are anticipated with a good chance for mainly late day storms moving from inland areas toward the beaches later in the day. This should be the same on Sunday with mainly afternoon and evening storms.

Monday things begin to change as whatever TD# 13 turns into by then gets closer to Florida.

What you should be doing is checking your hurricane supply kit make sure you have the necessary supplies. Right now it looks like if there were to be any evacuations it would be the barrier islands and manufactured homes.

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