‘Extremely active’ hurricane season possible for Atlantic Basin according to NOAA and Colorado State University

This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks

‘Extremely active’ hurricane season possible for Atlantic Basin according to NOAA and Colorado State University
Extremely Active Hurricane Season Possible For Atlantic Basin

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) -

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a rapid pace with a record-setting nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record.

Extremely Active Hurricane Season Possible For Atlantic Basin

Colorado State University updated it’s hurricane outlook on Wednesday

- 24 total named storms

- 12 hurricanes

- 5 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 or higher)

* This forecast includes the 9 storms that have already formed this season

If this forecast were to pan out, it would use up the entire list of 2020 tropical storm and hurricane names and require the use of the Greek alphabet for the remaining named storms (Alpha, Beta, Gamma).

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) produced an update 2020 hurricane outlook on Thursday

- 19-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater)

- 7-11 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater)

- 3-6 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater)

* This forecast includes the 9 storms that have already formed this season

While a few storms developed earlier this season off mid-latitude cyclones, the main factors contributing to the recent forecast change include:

1. Based on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index projection, combined with the above-average numbers of named storms and hurricanes, the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 85%.

2. The warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.

3. Reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.

4. The possibility of La Niña developing in the months ahead, which can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify

“We’re not expecting a reversal of any of the signals that led to early season activity. So, for this year it is likely that the early activity will continue on through the season,” Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s Climate Testbed Director.

It only takes one strong storm to have devastating impacts on a region and the aftermath of Isaias, which was a weak category 1 hurricane at landfall, shows why it is important to always be prepared and have a plan in place.

Rosencrans states, “We’ve all seen when there is a rush on supplies there isn’t always enough to go around. If we all take the time now and start a little bit earlier, it could allow the preparations to be a little more easier and let people really do what they need to do. We can’t do everything all at once, and we can’t do it all overnight.”

“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross.

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