Tropical cyclone to move toward Florida

Heavy rain biggest threat at this time

WWSB 6 p.m. First Alert Weather Tropical Update 07/29/2020

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - A poorly organized system is heading for the mountainous terrain of the Island of Hispaniola tonight and Thursday. That can sometimes spell doom for a storm. We shall see what emerges on the other side of the big island on Thursday. It will be a weaker storm for sure.

The forecast models are having a tough time with the system because it has not developed a well defined surface low pressure. Each forecast run shows a different solution. So we have to wait this one out after it moves back out over the warm waters of the SW Atlantic late Thursday.

The latest EURO forecast has shifted once again to the east of Florida and has it as a stronger storm. The cone of uncertainty has shifted to the right or east once again this evening. If this trend continues then we may not see much of anything this weekend.

Expected to become a tropical storm and head toward Florida for the weekend
Expected to become a tropical storm and head toward Florida for the weekend (Source: WWSB)

It’s still too early to say we will miss this storm it is looking more likely now that we will due to the fact that the GFS and EURO forecast models are showing the center pass along the east coast of Florida.

That would put us on the clean side of the storm and we would get the weaker part of the system. Remember there is a 300 mile error rate in the 5 day forecast. Meaning a lot can still happen.

At the worst it looks like it could be a big rain maker for the Suncoast on Sunday and Monday, the best would be a couple of breezy days with a few bands of showers moving through.

Stay tuned.

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