SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - At the time of this writing most of Florida peninsula is within the cone of uncertainty of potential cyclone #9. There is a real good chance for this system to turn into tropical storm Isasas as it moves toward Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
The forecast is now showing the system getting close to S. Florida on Saturday and then there is quite a spread as to where it will go after that.
It may begin to curve away from Florida as it gets pulled around an area of high pressure which is suppose to be located to the NE of the cyclone. If the storm is a little more organized and bigger than it will more than likely move through the Bahamas and then northward toward the Carolina coast.
If it is a weaker storm than it will move more to the WNW or toward Florida. It will not be directed by the high pressure system to the NE of the storm if it is a weak storm.
Either way it is going to have a hard time getting strong and organized over the next several days. It is going to be moving through the Greater Antilles with many mountains which will disrupt the circulation. There will be some dry air moving in and around the system as it moves northwestward. There will also be some shear around the system as it gets closer to the SW Atlantic. All these factors should keep this storm from becoming a monster.
That being said you cannot take a tropical storm lightly. There have been plenty to cause considerable damage from flooding and costing many lives.
So right now we have to wait this one out before making any kind of big decisions. We need to wait until the actual low forms. This will allow models will get a better handle on where it will be heading in the future. So far the favored forecast is Isaias moving through the Bahamas and then north toward the Carolina’s.
If it were to hit S. Florida and head this way it would NOT be much of a wind storm. It would however be a big rain storm causing flooding concerns. Just be prepared and keep informed on ABC7 and on our First Alert Weather mobile app.
The forecast for Wednesday expect partly cloudy skies and a 20% for a morning storm along the coast. A 40% chance for a few late day storms mainly east of I-75. The high will be 92 with winds out of the SW at 5-10 mph.
Thursday the rain chance lessens to 30% for a few scattered storms with highs in the low 90′s and a heat index in the low 100′s.
Friday stays fairly dry with a slight chance for a few scattered storms mainly in the afternoon.
The weekend weather will depend upon the future movement of the tropical cyclone expected to get close to Florida by late Saturday.