SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Here we go again! With the repositioning of the high pressure now over south central Florida look for very light winds out of the south and then turn more southwest later in the day.
This kind of pattern will favor the big storms inland and a few coastal showers or an isolated thunderstorm near the coast during the morning through early afternoon.
This wind shift also means higher humidity and that will put the heat on the Suncoast. Look for a heat index beginning at Noon from 100 and getting close to 105 by mid afternoon.
We will see partly cloudy skies through the day with a high of 91. The rain chance near the coast 20% and inland areas 40%.
Wednesday pretty much just like Tuesday with a good chance for mainly inland storms.
On Thursday some drier air slips into the mid to upper levels which will bring the rain chance down to 30% for mainly inland storms.
Highs will be close to average 91 and lows will be running a couple of degrees above average due to the onshore flow. Look for mostly sunny skies through much of the morning with the exception of an isolated shower or two.
In the tropics we continue to watch invest 92L. This has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 2 days and 80% chance over the next 5 days.
Interesting to note that those numbers have actually come down from 80 to 90% just a day ago. This means the system is not organizing or consolidating around surface low pressure at this time. This is a good thing because it will take longer to get stronger as it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles.
The Euro forecast model is showing it developing into a tropical storm and then moving mainly WNW staying in the Caribbean. While the GFS run takes it toward the central Bahamas and then takes it north running parallel to Florida’s east coast.
Either way it is still some 2000 miles SE of the Suncoast and many things can happen between now and Sunday. My feeling is that since there is still a lot of SAL or Saharan dust around it and shouldn’t get too big. On top of that there looks to be marginal shear all around it as the system moves closer to the Islands in the E. Caribbean. This too would limit the intensity of the storm.
If it were to have an impact on our weather it wouldn’t be until late Saturday or early Sunday.