SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Our tropical system in the southwest Gulf waters continues to develop. There remains high uncertainty in the development of this system due to its proximity to the Mexican coast and some stronger winds aloft. One set of computer models dissipate the storm over the Mexican mainland. Similar to the history of Amanda, the storm then redevelops in the Gulf and lifts north. Another set of models takes the storm, ‚after a loop in the track, and carries it into the Gulf in a different direction. Regardless of the storm development, the atmosphere over the Gulf becomes rich with moisture. On Thursday a bit of energy (separate from the tropical system) dives south out of the Deep South and interacts with the moisture plum. The result will likley be a very wet Thursday with waves of showers and possibly a thunderstorm at almost anytime during the day. I don’t expect severe weather at this point, but Thursday may be a bit of a wash out with difficult driving at times. Thursday is a First Alert Weather Day.
The forecast for the weekend and start of next work week is uncertain. It will be highly dependent of the guidance from the National Hurricane Center as to the track and strength of our developing tropical system. In one track scenario the showers associated with the tropical system stays just off shore, In a stronger system tracking closer to the eastern Gulf waters our winds would be breezier and rains heavier.