SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - With everything be cancelled due to the deadly virus Covid 19 it’s too bad we can’t cancel hurricane season as well. The season unfortunately will start June 1st as it does every year.
The early forecast for the number of storms and the intensity is out from Dr. Philip Klotzbach from Colorado State and his team is projecting an above average season.
The basis for his forecast of an active tropical season for the Atlantic basin is due to the possibility of a weak La Nina and above average water temperatures in the main development region for these storms in the Atlantic.
La Nina is a cooling effect for the E. Pacific near Peru. When this is in effect it can cause more storms and stronger ones in the Atlantic basin. We saw this back in 2017 when incredible storms developed Harvey, Irma and Maria during a weak La Nina.
One must remember that the early forecast for 2017 was for a below average hurricane season but that forecast was a bust. There were 17 names storms that year.
The forecast models for ENSO, which is the El Nino Southern Oscillation, for the summer and fall for 2017 was suggesting a weak El Nino which inhibits development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.
The forecast from Dr. Philip Klotzbach on this early date calls for 16 named storms, 8 of which will turn into hurricanes and 4 of them turning into major storms with winds greater than 110 mph.
The season is only 2 short months away and I know our attention is focused on what some call a “major cat 5 worldwide hurricane” call Covid 19, but we Floridians must still prepare for the possibility of a storm hitting our coast this season which begins June 1st. and goes through Nov. 30th.