SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - The old saying “it ain’t over till it’s over” is apropos with a baseball games and hurricane seasons.
It was just a week ago we were watching an area of disturbed weather in the SW Gulf of Mexico that eventually developed into Tropical Storm Nestor and brought some heavy rain and damaging tornadoes to Florida.
The official end to the hurricane season is Nov. 30th and typically late season storms form in the Gulf and W. Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area in the same place where Nestor formed last week.
Although there are only a couple of forecast models suggesting a surface low developing over the next few days it does bear watching as it moves to the NE. The water temperature in the Gulf is still warm enough for tropical cyclones to develop. The water temperature has to be 80 degrees or above in order for storms to develop and gain strength.
Right now the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 20% chance of developing over the next 2 days and 30% for the next 5.
I will be watching this closely over the next 48 hours to see if the other models start to pick up on this feature. Either way it would be a weak one as conditions are not all that favorable for developing as a trough of low pressure moving down through TX should inhibit it from becoming a big storm.
It didn’t take a big storm to bring 5 inches of rainfall to the Suncoast and several tornado warnings this past Saturday. It was only a small tropical storm called Nestor.
The next named storm will be Olga. Will this become the next named storm? It remains to be seen. Stay tuned.