First Alert Weather: Breezy/isolated showers today, but widespread tropical rain is in the weekend forecast

First Alert Weather - 12:00pm October 16, 2019

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - After several days of experiencing mostly sunny skies and virtually rain free conditions, are transition day starts today. Increasing clouds will form over the Suncoast this afternoon, and then there will be a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms this evening. Highs will top out around 89 degrees; (average high is 85). West winds will crank up to about 15 mph sustained, with wind gusts up to 20 mph.

For tonight, expect mostly cloudy conditions, with lows in the lower to mid 70′s; (average low is 68), and a slight chance for a shower or storm. The breezy westerly winds will finally calm down to about 5-10 mph, and then winds will shift to the northwest thanks to a cold front charging through the area.

The rain chance slightly increases tomorrow, and then the question becomes timing of the widespread rainfall over the weekend?! A tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, looks to get caught up in the upper level southwest winds, and track toward Florida.

The question on timing is key, because the GFS (Global Forecasting System) American forecasting model, shows widespread showers and storms arriving in the late afternoon of Friday. And if that’s the case, then Friday Night Football may get a bit damp and muddy?! However, the EURO (European) forecasting model, shows the system coming in during the overnight of Friday/Saturday morning. That would be better for the Friday Night Football games, but either way, both models agree that we’ll see widespread showers and a few thunderstorms throughout the day on Saturday.

And this rain will be welcomed, because we are 3.5″ down for the year. And since the month of September, we have to play quite a bit of catch up, as we’re down 6.56″. So any rainfall we can get will be embraced by the community. But by the time this system wraps up on Sunday, Mother Nature will help to put a dent in our rainfall deficit.

Have a wonderful Wednesday afternoon everyone!

Meteorologist Josh Stone

First Alert Weather - 12:00pm October 16, 2019

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