Potential tropical cyclone could be Humberto as it moves closer to FL

Still a bit of uncertainty as to path of storm

First Alert Weather - 6:00pm September 12, 2019

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Well here we go again! The two of the most reliable storm forecast models are at odds as to what is going to happen with this tropical system over the next several days. Sound familiar?

The GFS or US model wants to keep it as an open wave and move it across S. Florida then into the Gulf where it may become a tropical depression or storm heading toward the lower MS. Valley. This scenario would bring us more rain over the weekend.

The EURO on the other hand wants to move it along the E. coast of Florida and up toward Jacksonville where it would become a stronger storm and possibly a hurricane if it stayed out over the water during the next 3 days.

Either way it is not going to be a big storm for us here along the Suncoast. In fact as we have been suggesting for the past 3 days, this is going to bring the potential for some heavy rainfall at times over the weekend but not much wind. Basically Sat. and early Sunday is when we would see the heaviest rainfall.

This system is poorly organized right now and has a chance to get more organized over the next 48 hours if the large upper low over the Gulf of Mexico moves out faster to the west.

So once again it will be a bit of a waiting game on Friday to see if the GFS starts to trend more toward the other global models or it stays as an open wave and moves across S. Florida. Time will tell.

So on Friday we can expect to see partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 90′s once again on an NE wind at 15-20 mph throughout the day. There will be an increase in moisture so expect a good chance for scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of those could bring some heavy rainfall at times but should be moving fast enough that we wouldn’t see and problems with flooding.

Saturday depending upon the future movement of the storm we can expect mostly cloudy skies at times with a good chance for passing showers and a few thunderstorms. Some of the storms could bring some pretty good downpours. It will be breezy on Saturday with winds out of the NE at 20 mph with some gusts up to 25.

Sunday look for variable cloudiness with a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The high on both Saturday and Sunday will be around 88 degrees.

The extended forecast is all dependent upon whether the tropical system moves out into the Atlantic away from FL or sticks around a while near Jacksonville. If it gets hung up in the flow near Jacksonville then we would continue to see the possibility of some heavier rainfall on Monday.

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