Tropical system getting better organized near Cuba

Could become next named storm

First Alert Weather - 6:00pm September 11, 2019

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Invest 95 L the tropical disturbance is still over 500 miles away from the Suncoast but getting closer by the day. This system is looking a little healthier on the satellite over the past 24 hours and the National Hurricane Center has been bumping up the chances of this thing becoming the next storm throughout the day.

It is located just north of the eastern tip of Cuba in the Atlantic. The chances for developing has increased to 50% for the next 2 days and 70% for the next 5 as it moves to the NW at 5-10 mph.

A recon plane is scheduled to investigate the area Thursday afternoon if it still looks as healthy on the satellite image on Thursday.

Right now it looks like it will move to the WNW at 5-10 mph and move through the Florida straits or over S. Florida on Friday. Water temperatures are really quite warm out ahead of this system so it looks likely that this will become Humberto in the next few days.

If it take a more northerly course over S. Florida and moves into SW Florida then we would see a weaker system, say a tropical depression. If it were to move through the Florida straits it will have a much better chance of developing into a tropical storm sooner than later.

We can expect to see increasing cloudiness on Friday with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Some storms could bring some heavy rain at times.

Saturday look for mostly cloudy skies with a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms. We could see these storms in the morning and more numerous in the afternoon and evening as the system tracks closer to the Suncoast.

Right now it looks like we would be on the right side or “dirty side” of the low pressure which means we would see the bulk of the rainfall. As far as winds go it shouldn’t be too strong as it passes. We should see breezy conditions through the weekend.

Most of the models have it tracking into the Gulf of Mexico and then moving toward the lower MS Valley by late Sunday and early Monday.

Highs on Thursday will be in the low 90′s with only a slight chance for late day storms. Winds will be out of the ENE at 10-20 mph.

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