First Alert Weather: A more typical summertime pattern is expected for the Suncoast this next week

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - Just to touch upon Barry really quick... Barry has officially been downgraded from a Tropical Storm to a Tropical Depression. It’s losing its tropical strength, due to it now tracking over land. Tropical systems feed off of warm waters, but now that Barry has moved over land, it’s fuel supply has been cut off. However, it continues to suck up moisture from the northern Gulf of Mexico, and spill it out all over the lower Mississippi river valley. So major flooding issues will continue to plague those areas for the next several days/weeks.

Barry will also continue to pull in dry air from the southeast, along with a ridge of high pressure to the northeast of Florida. The combination of these two spinning wheels will create a lower precip chance for this upcoming work week. However, even though the rain chance will be low, every afternoon there will still be a chance for showers and storms to develop, due to the Suncoast now being back in a typical summertime pattern; (Sunny in the morning, then clouds developing in the afternoon, and then scattered inland showers and storms during the late afternoon hours). And those storms will be pushed west due to the upper level winds streaming out of the east and southeast.

The tropics are quiet as of right now, so no issues or concerns of any threat brewing in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico at this time. HOWEVER, the latest GFS weather forecasting model run on this Sunday evening, has depicted a possible new system developing in the Gulf 10 days from now. And it looks to track right into the panhandle or west coast of Florida. This is still several days out, and so much can change in 10 days, but it’s just a little nugget to put into the back of your mind that we are now in the middle of the 2019 hurricane season, so there will be more potential systems that develop.

The Atlantic looks to be quiet for a while, because there’s a huge area of dry air air floating around in the upper atmosphere, most likely due to Sahara dust, (from the Sahara desert). Dry air prohibits tropical development. But in the Caribbean and Gulf, there is a lack of dry air, so this will be something to keep our eye on as we go through this next week.

As a meteorologist, we look for consistency and agreement with the forecasting models. So if the latest model runs over the next few days continue to show a potential system developing in the Gulf, chances will be high that something may happen. As always, keep it tuned to ABC-7, the MySuncoast.com web page, our Facebook page, our Twitter account, or download our weather app, to get the latest weather info and tropical updates.

As for the Suncoast weather forecast this next week, you can expect warm and humid conditions with highs topping out in the lower 90′s, and lows dropping down into the mid 70′s. The average high at this time of the year is 90, while the average low is 75, so this is exactly where we should be.

Have a fabulous Sunday evening everyone!

Meteorologist Josh Stone

First Alert Weather - 11:00pm July 14, 2019