October surprise expected to develop as a system moves toward the Caribbean

Sarasota, Fla. (WWSB) - A system moving toward the Windward Islands in the Caribbean is showing signs of developing. It is likely it will be named in the next 24 hours. The next name up in this years list is Matthew.

Although it is fairly certain that this system will become a tropical storm, there is a lot of uncertainty as to where it will go once it gets into the Central Caribbean.

There are several factors which will determine the future path of this system. If it moves fast and is a weaker storm as it moves through the E. Caribbean then it has a better chance of it getting into the Gulf of Mexico.

The slower and stronger the system is by the time it reaches the Central Caribbean could bring it more toward the Island of Hispaniola putting the Dominican Republic and Haiti in danger.

There are a lot of factors which will determine the future path of the 13th named storm of the season. It is hard for the forecast models to get a good handle on where the system may be in 5 days because there is no well defined center at this point.

Once the National Hurricane Center classifies the cyclone as a tropical depression then we will get a little better idea as to where the storm may go. Even so there will be several scenarios which could change the location of the storm in 7-8 days from now.

Right now it is a waiting game. October storms can sometimes be a problem for the Suncoast. In 1944 Oct. 19th Sarasota County was slammed by a large hurricane.

Now is the time to make sure you have your plan ready. The season does not officially end until Nov. 30th.

Meteorologist

Bob Harrigan

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