Tropical Storm Arthur is a complex storm becoming better organized. An eye is forming while pressure continues to drop. A drop in pressure is an indication of storm strengthening and we will likely see an increase in wind speed today. The good news for Florida is that the strongest winds remain off shore. The east coast has the risk of strong rip currents and high wave action into the holiday weekend.
Conditions are expected to slowly improve for development as upper winds are forecast to die down. This may make Arthur has a chance of becoming the first hurricane of the season. Models also are in agreement with keeping the system off the Florida coast and slowly lifting the storm to the north and northeast up the south Atlantic coastline. There is a tropical storm watch from Fort Pierce to just North of Daytona beach.
We will see drier air pushed into the Suncoast which will drive our rain chances down for a few days. A southwest wind will develop by the Fourth of July and push most evening storms inland.
If you are planning to travel to the east coast of Florida be advised that boating and other water activities will become increasingly dangerous in the days to come and some beaches may be cleared.