Tropical low has good chance of becoming Gabrielle

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ABC 7 Storm Team - An area of disturbed weather near the Eastern Caribbean has a good chance of becoming the next tropical cyclone of the Atlantic 2013 hurricane season.

Pressures are dropping and conditions are becoming a little more favorable for a tropical depression or storm forming before Tuesday. The tropical wave we have been watching march across the Atlantic last week is showing signs of organizing.

Right now the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 40% chance of developing. So far there have been no hurricanes up to this point in the rather quiet 2013 hurricane season. Usually by this time we would have had at least 2 hurricanes.

The forecast models are indicating a west course for the next couple of days and then they spread out a bit. Then there is a considerable spread as to where it might go after that. Some models keep it on a more westerly course and then start to turn it to the NW and then eventually N, while others make the turn earlier through Haiti and then the Bahamas. It's very difficult to get a handle as to where it may go in the next 3 to 4 days due to the fact a center of low pressure is difficult to find and has been bouncing around a bit.

Regardless of where this system will head, it's now time to check your hurricane supply kit, and go over your evacuation plan as we are heading into the peak of hurricane season over the next couple of weeks. You can do that by visiting our Hurricane web page, and downloading the ABC 7 Hurricane guide.

Stay tuned to ABC 7 for updates throughout the hurricane season.

Bob Harrigan