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First Alert Weather: 2 p.m. Update; Tropical system has better chance of developing in Gulf

SARASOTA, FL (WWSB) - The tropical wave I have been watching over Hispaniola now has a pretty good chance of developing once it gets into the Gulf next week.

Right now an upper level trough is not allowing this system to organize all that much due to strong upper level winds.  Strong thunderstorms continue to pop up along this line of low pressure but nothing around one specific area.

The hostile conditions for development are expected to improve once it gets into the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday.  The National Hurricane Center only gives it a 10% of developing over the next 2 days due to the strong shear environment it is currently in.

One thing is for certain it is going to bring an increasing chance for heavier rain and stronger storms on Monday and Tuesday.

It looks like if it were to develop it would push away from Florida by late Tuesday.  The more likely area it will go is toward the N. Gulf coast States or toward Texas.

Surface pressures are not falling at this time which is a good sign that it wont be developing any time soon.

Next advisory will be issued at 8 p.m.

Stay tuned to this system through the weekend.

Bob Harrigan

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