Tropical Storm Arthur is getting beat up a bit this evening as some shear on the NW side and some dry air is interacting with the storm. The winds remain at 50 mph and it is moving very slowly to the N at only 2 mph. The pressure hasn't really dropped all that much on Tuesday evening.
Based on satellite and radar data it appears that the low may be reforming to the east. A recon plane will be into the system again early morning on Wednesday. If it finds that indeed the low has shifted to the east, then this will be somewhat better news for the Carolinas. This would keep the system farther out to sea.
The general thinking is still the same, a trough will dig into the Mid Atlantic and high pressure to the east of Arthur will force the storm to move toward the north later on Wednesday and then off the NE on Thursday.
Intensity models, which typically do poorly, show the system becoming a hurricane early Thursday morning. The shear is expected to weaken, and the dry air to be replaced by warm moist air by late Wednesday.
There is still a tropical storm watch for W. coast of Florida from Ft. Pierce to just north of Daytona beach. More watches and warnings may be needed for the Carolina coast later on Wednesday.
Once again we had a convergence band move through our area Tuesday just like Monday bringing some heavy downpours and quite a few lightning strikes. We may see similar conditions again later on Wednesday but the chance is fairly low. So while the West coast will see little impact from Arthur, the East coast will see large swells generated by the storm and life threatening surf and rip currents can be expected.